While The NFL might dominate Thanksgiving, the day after always provides one of the most electric college football days of the year and this year is no exception. I’ve already blessed you with my #MACFriday picks (It’s a hashtag now and you can just deal with that) so let’s see what other games stick out as potential diamonds in the rough. Let’s Roll.
Houston @ Memphis -7 ou76(!!!) – Listen, anytime you dangle a number that big in my face I’m probably going to take the over. Some Pavlovian shit like you read about but I digress. Now, when you tell me that this Houston team is averaging 48 points per game this season, while Memphis is scoring a cool 43 per, I’m actually going to start salivating like one of those fucking dogs when the bell rings. I lean Houston on the side, but the real pick here is o76. Let’s watch 2 top 7 offenses go to work and get that money.
Texas -15 @ Kansas ou49 – Now this games a little trickier. Kansas just hired Les Miles and for the first time in lord knows how long they actually feel like they’re trending in the right direction. That being said, they are definitely still Kansas football and have a 3-8 record, but they’ve been good to their backers this year and stand at 6-5 ATS. Texas has been a bit of a roller coaster this year going from definitely not back to maybe back to back to maybe back again. The X factor in this game is going to be Sam Ehlingers health as he’s currently working through a shoulder injury. In reality a fully healthy Ehlinger and Texas playing to their potential should have no problem steamrolling
the Rutgers of the Big 12 Kansas. Texas -15 is the pick
Oregon -17.5 @ Oregon State ou69 – I’ll be honest, this game didn’t jump off the page when I first looked at the slate. I think it’s because the Pac 12 is the least enjoyable conference in college football. There’s no grit. There’s no fullbacks. There’s no winter over there! Winter builds character! And how can we possibly expect these soft west coast football teams to play through adversity with their coddling soft millennial ass weather. Phew, that was a tangent, now on to the only reason I’m including this game on the slate, currently 87% of public money is on the over in this game. This creates the opportunity for a contrarian play or fading the public, one of the more profitable methods of ATS sports betting. Anytime the public is backing over 80% of one side I’m generally going the other way – Vegas wouldn’t be in business if Joe Public wasn’t a colossal dickhead. Fade the public and take u69.
Oklahoma -2.5 @ West Virginia ou84 – Did anyone hear a bell? Why is my mouth watering? Oh the over under is 84 you say? Well that’ll certainly do it. (2 Pavlov references in one pick blog I am en fuckin fuego). Now, it terrifies me that the public is so heavy on the over (80% at the time of this writing, down from 92% earlier in the week. Oklahoma has shown that there’s some weak spots, mainly any guy on their roster not named Kyler Murray and every single player on defense, but that’s just Big 12 football. Take the over and take WVU at home as Coach Dana loves to play spoiler and a WVU win here all but assures Oklahoma misses the playoff. o84 and WVU +2/ML
Washington @ Washington State -2 ou50.5 – Remember all that shit I was talking about how soft the Pac 12 is and their lack of character? Well there is one man and one man only in the Pac 12 none of that applies too and his name is Mike Leach, one of the great philosophers of our time. I expected this line be a little closer to 5-7, so -2 definitely raises eyebrows and is one of those lines that makes you wonder what do these line monkeys in Vegas know that we common folk don’t? Washington’s season has been over for a few weeks now while Leach’s Cougars continue to roll and while everyone loves a chance to play spoiler, if Minshew the Mustachioed bandit keeps slinging the rock the way he has been for the Cougs, I see no reason they can’t get from 10-1 (also 10-1 ATS) to 11-1 and perhaps find a backdoor into the playoff. WSU -2, bet the mortgage.
Houston @ Memphis o76
Oregon @ Oregon State u69
Oklahoma @ WVU o84 and WVU -2/ML
Washington St – 2
So that’s all I have to say about that. Hope everyone had a delightful Thanksgiving and is ready to make some money this weekend. As I previously alluded to, I am most thankful for Mike Leach and cannot mention him in a blog without including the highlight reel.